"Mineral Deal": How Trump's Pressure is Changing the Balance of Power
Why the "Mineral Deal" is Important for Ukraine and Dangerous for the Aggressor
Ukraine is entering the final stage of an agreement on mineral supplies with the United States. According to Bloomberg, "ideally, the mineral deal will be signed in the presence of the presidents of the U.S. and Ukraine."
President Donald Trump continues his signature tactic of parallel negotiations: in public, he maintains tough rhetoric and condemns "dictators," while behind closed doors, he engages in pragmatic bargaining.
Why the "Mineral Deal" is Important for Ukraine and Dangerous for the Aggressor
Economic Strengthening of Kyiv
Cooperation with the U.S. in mineral extraction and supply could provide Ukraine with a powerful financial lever and investments that will enhance the country’s resilience during the war. The Kremlin, already bogged down in its attempts to retain occupied territories, risks facing an even stronger opponent.
Ukraine’s Growing Political Weight
Signing such a deal publicly, especially in the presence of both presidents, would be a powerful PR move. It would demonstrate that Kyiv enjoys strong support, while Trump is interested in ensuring "resource security" without concern for political grudges or attacks on "dictators."
A Blow to Moscow’s International Standing
While Russia attempts to "cut off Ukraine’s oxygen" by blocking energy supplies and launching missile strikes on infrastructure, any expansion of mineral extraction and exports bypassing Russian suppliers will only deepen the Kremlin’s geopolitical isolation.
Trump’s Tactic: Pressure on Two Fronts
President Trump is well known for his tough negotiation skills. For him, there is only one goal—benefit for the U.S. (and, consequently, for his political image). When he calls Zelensky a "dictator," it serves two purposes:
A Public Display of Strength: Ukraine can be placed in a humiliating position in front of the entire world if it does not agree to terms favorable to the U.S.
A Preemptive Bargaining Position: If Kyiv shows flexibility (for example, by granting faster access to resources or accepting an unfavorable revenue-sharing scheme), the White House's rhetoric softens immediately.
A similar mechanism applies to Moscow:
As long as Russia remains the "other pole" seeking to appear "friendly" for its own hidden goals (deals or countering China’s influence), it can maintain some leverage. However, if necessary, the Kremlin will come under harsher pressure than ever before.
If Moscow makes a "wrong move," Trump can easily revive accusations about "Russian aggression," "NATO expansion," and a host of other issues that would justify new sanctions and diplomatic confrontations.
Why Russia Will Have to Adapt to the New Reality
Ongoing War and Military Failures
Russian forces have failed to achieve the "quick victory" that the Kremlin had anticipated. It has become clear that the prolonged so-called "special operation" is draining the Russian army, while Ukraine’s 18-year-old conscripts only highlight Kyiv’s determination to fight to the end.
Territorial "Fantasies"
Moscow may be forced to abandon its claims about "constitutional" borders that include Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and other occupied regions. The reality is that any attempt to annex new Ukrainian territories faces fierce resistance both locally and internationally.
Drones and Missile Strikes on Russia
The Kremlin is increasingly witnessing attacks on its own facilities. And this is just the beginning: large-scale Western technological and intelligence support gives Kyiv the capability to strike Russia’s "rear areas." It is likely that such strikes will become even more painful, further deepening the crisis within Russia itself.
Negotiations: No Earlier Than Fall
Experts believe that major diplomatic shifts are unlikely before the fall. The reasons:
Spring-Summer Escalation: In the coming months, fighting is expected to intensify. Kyiv aims to push Russian forces out of key regions, while Moscow is desperate for some kind of symbolic victory.
White House Political Maneuvering: Trump will escalate foreign policy actions rather than rush into a vague peace settlement.
Europe’s Uncertain Position: The EU supports Ukraine but also seeks ways to mitigate the economic consequences of the war. Everyone will wait until the summer campaign concludes to reassess the balance of power.
What Trump Really Wants
Manipulating Ambitions and Weaknesses: Donald Trump is a businessman, and his negotiation style clearly reflects that. Price is his main concern—if Kyiv is willing to pay with resources and increased loyalty, it will receive support. If Moscow concedes something beneficial to the U.S., it may be temporarily left alone.
Dividing Opponents: When one side receives a "carrot" and the other a "stick," the White House can play them against each other, reducing the likelihood of them uniting against the U.S.
Conclusion
Reports of an imminent "mineral deal" between the U.S. and Ukraine are clear evidence that the White House, under Donald Trump, is ready to leverage all economic and military tools to strengthen its position while pressuring both sides of the conflict.
For Kyiv, this is an opportunity to attract investments and resources that will aid in its fight against Russian aggression. However, it comes with a price—tolerating public humiliation and harsh rhetoric from Trump.
For Moscow, this signals that no "pseudo-referendums" or propaganda narratives will solve its mounting problems. The Kremlin continues to lose both military potential and international influence.
The war drags on, and the real decisive round of negotiations will likely begin no earlier than fall. By then, both sides will strive to maximize their strength and demonstrate their ability to strike.
Russia will have to answer for its bloody adventure, and every new agreement Ukraine signs with the West—whether "mineral" or military—only pushes the Kremlin further into a dead end. Meanwhile, President Trump's strategy remains unchanged: hard bargaining, public manipulation, and exploiting weaknesses to extract maximum benefit for the U.S., regardless of other nations' interests.