In the retinue of the "unsinkable flagship" navigating the murky waters of geopolitics, strange characters are always found. One of them is the head of Russia’s foreign intelligence, Sergey Naryshkin, who also leads the Russian Historical Society. Recently, he delivered yet another "masterpiece" of historical thought: he proposed discussing the division of Ukraine among neighboring countries. "With historian colleagues from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia" – without clarifying whether he invites them as accomplices or potential annexers.
Such grandiose words send a chill down the spine, though after February 24, the world should have already hardened. Redrawing borders instead of ensuring their transparency always leads to war. The irony is that Russia itself fails to notice that by speculating on the division of neighboring states, it is opening Pandora’s box for its own statehood. Naryshkin does not consider the possibility that in this game, lots may be drawn from another basket – that of Russia itself. And there are plenty of willing participants.
The Fearful Mirror
The greatest fear of the Russian elite is not war, not sanctions, not international isolation. No, their worst nightmare is the dissolution of Russia. They fear it as the end of the world, an apocalypse, though one might ask – what is so terrible about the liberation of peoples whom they have oppressed for centuries? But for an imperial mindset accustomed to treating vast territories as its unconditional property, even the thought of decolonization is heresy.
"Russians" live in the illusion that everyone around them thinks in an imperial paradigm. If they dream of seizing foreign lands, they assume everyone else dreams of dismantling theirs. But unlike imperial paranoia, national states do not build their identity on conquests and violence. Ukraine is not afraid of "division" – it fears only one thing: becoming a Russian colony again.
Hypothetical End and Inevitability
When Russia claims that the West dreams of dividing it, this sounds like an admission of guilt. The reality is that Russia today is already an empire, where numerous peoples are forcibly kept within its borders. From Tatarstan to Buryatia, from Yakutia to Ichkeria – Russian statehood is built on the suppression of national movements and the exploitation of subordinate regions.
When Russian officials frighten their people with a "Western conspiracy" to dismantle Russia, they are merely acknowledging its fragility. After all, if a state is strong, respected, and viable, who can "dismantle" it? Is anyone suggesting dividing France or Japan? But Russia exists in a paradigm of colonial expansion, which is why its leaders fear the return of nations to their roots.
Today, they gather at historical symposiums to discuss the fate of their neighbors, but tomorrow, a similar symposium may convene elsewhere – deliberating over the future of Siberia, the Urals, or the Caucasus. History does not favor arrogant claims, but it loves to return them like a boomerang. And he who casts stones today will be the one to gather them tomorrow.